Last week, we looked at recently-published research into the domicile choices of the younger generations, which indicated that many ‘thirty-somethings’ would choose a house in the suburbs over the trendy city pad, once they have children.
But is that true, and how does it affect urban planning?
Halfway through the report entitled ‘Emerging Trends in Residential Market Demand’, BIS Shrapnel Senior Manager Angie Zigomanis points to an alternate scenario.
He suggests that if the current crop of 20-to-34 year olds have an increased acceptance of medium and high density dwelling living for location, lifestyle and affordability preferences, then demand may well continue towards multi-unit dwellings in established areas rather than for houses on greenfield sites.
“This scenario provides an opportunity for developers to meet demand for a different type of multi-unit dwelling to the typical investment stock that is currently being built in established areas to accommodate the younger 20-to-34 year old renters,” says Zigomanis.
“Dwellings would need to be designed to be more appropriate to their next life stage of family with young and growing children, offering more space, both indoor and some outdoor, or located adjacent to public outdoor spaces.
“It could also trigger greater renovation activity as the emerging 35-to-49 year olds who still want a house purchase in established areas and tailor the house to their needs.”
This alternate scenario is so far only likely in New South Wales, and particularly in Sydney, where households have much a higher propensity to live in townhouses, units and apartments.
The number of 35-to-49 year old households living in a separate house actually dropped in New South Wales between the 2006 and 2011 Censuses. With this trend expected to continue, multi-unit dwellings in that state will increase as a percentage of total new dwellings.
In contrast, the shift towards multi-unit dwellings is likely to slow and stabilise in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia where householders are much more likely to be in a detached house once they are in their late 30s.
The jury is still out on Victoria where the recent deterioration in new house affordability in Melbourne, and increasing population growth and congestion, may see 20-to-34 year olds increasingly go the way of Sydney and stay in medium-and high density dwellings in established areas rather than move out to new houses in the suburban fringes.
While the rate of population growth in the 20-to-34 year old age cohort will begin to slow through the next decade, it is this group that has experienced the biggest shift in demand to multi-unit dwellings. With this trend still expected to continue, demand for units and apartments – particularly for rental – will nevertheless continue to increase from this demographic despite slowing population growth.
* The report examines trends revealed by a detailed analysis of Census data from the last 20 years